Broncos vs Chiefs Prop Hit Rates
Week 1 · Mon, Sep 14, 8:15 PM ET · 143 props on Underdog & PrizePicks
Every Broncos vs Chiefs player prop on the board with its last-10 hit rate against the current line. Reads come from the same scorer as our slip grader: a TAKE means the under has a validated edge, a TRAP means the number is fighting the player's recent form, a coin flip means neither signal fired.
Top takes in this game
- Jaylen Waddleunder 56.5 receiving yards~71% to hitInflated number — 56.5 sits 4.5 above their last-10 average (52) and they've stayed under it in 6 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- Jaylen Waddleunder 54.5 receiving yards~62% to hitInflated number — 54.5 sits 2.5 above their last-10 average (52) and they've stayed under it in 6 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- Xavier Worthyunder 3.5 receptions~61% to hitInflated number — 3.5 sits 0.6 above their last-10 average (2.9) and they've stayed under it in 7 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- Brashard Smithunder 6.5 receiving yards~60% to hitInflated number — 6.5 sits 1.5 above their last-10 average (5) and they've stayed under it in 8 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- Brashard Smithunder 6.5 receiving yards~60% to hitInflated number — 6.5 sits 1.5 above their last-10 average (5) and they've stayed under it in 8 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
Denver Broncos props
| Player | Market | Line | L10 over | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | Pass+Rush Yds | 239.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Pass Yards | 227.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Attempts | 34.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Completions | 21.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 15.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 3.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Tds | 1.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Completion | 35.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 10.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Pass INTs | 0.5 | 60% | COIN FLIP | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Jaylen Waddle | Rush + Rec Yds | 58.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP |
| Receiving Yards | 56.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 54.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 4.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Receptions | 4.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush Attempts | 0.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 21.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 21.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 11.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rec Targets | 6.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Courtland Sutton | Receiving Yards | 42.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Rush + Rec Yds | 42.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 4.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 18.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Nate Adkins | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Adam Trautman | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| Evan Engram | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| RJ Harvey | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Pat Bryant | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Troy Franklin | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Jonah Coleman | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Wil Lutz | Kicking Points | 6.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Kicking Points | 6.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Xp Made | 1.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| FG Made | 1.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| FG Made | 1.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Nik Bonitto | Sacks | 0.8 | 50% | COIN FLIP |
| Sacks | 0.8 | 50% | COIN FLIP |
Kansas City Chiefs props
| Player | Market | Line | L10 over | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III | Rush+Rec Yds | 81.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Rush + Rec Yds | 81.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 63.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 62.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 16.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 16.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 15.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 15.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 60% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Rush | 15.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 15.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 13.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Longest Reception | 9.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 9.5 | — | — | |
| Rec Targets | 3 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Player Touchdowns | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Brashard Smith | Rush + Rec Yds | 12.5 | 20% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 6.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 6.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 3.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 3.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 1.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 1.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Reception | 5.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 5.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 3.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 3.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Patrick Mahomes | Pass+Rush Yds | 251.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Pass Yards | 229.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Completions | 21.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 15.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 3.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Tds | 1.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Completion | 37.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 10.5 | — | — | |
| Pass INTs | 0.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Tyquan Thornton | Receiving Yards | 20.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 20.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — | |
| Longest Reception | 15.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 15.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 4.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Rashee Rice | Receiving Yards | 61.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 59.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 5.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 21.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 21.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 14 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rec Targets | 7.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Xavier Worthy | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 34.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — | |
| Longest Reception | 18.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 18.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 8.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rec Targets | 5.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Travis Kelce | Receiving Yards | 41.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 15.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Noah Gray | Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — | |
| Cyrus Allen | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Jalen Royals | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| Emmett Johnson | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Harrison Butker | Kicking Points | 7.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP |
| Kicking Points | 7.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Xp Made | 2.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| FG Made | 1.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER |
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