How we compute hit rates

Data sources

Player results come from official box scores ingested after every game (ESPN for NFL, NBA, and WNBA; MLB Stats API for MLB). Lines come from the DFS boards we track (Underdog, and PrizePicks when its feed is available) and are refreshed continuously while the board is open. A page shows the platform its line came from — we never label a line as PrizePicks when it came from somewhere else.

Hit rate

A hit rate is the share of a player's games in which the stat finished strictly above the line (over) or strictly below it (under). Games that land exactly on a whole-number line are pushes: they are excluded from both the over and the under rate rather than counted as a miss. Windows are the last 5, last 10, and the full season; NFL pages default to last 10 because a 5-game window is a third of a season.

Every rate is shown with its sample size. We do not publish a season rate for a player with fewer than six games, and the site-wide research pages require six games and a volume floor before a player gets a page at all.

Hit rate by line (the ladder)

The ladder re-runs the same count at lines above and below the current one so you can see how sensitive a rate is to a half-point move. Yardage markets step by 12.5; counting markets step by 1.

TAKE, TRAP, COIN FLIP

The verdict on a leg is the output of one shared scorer used everywhere on the site, so the board, the matchup pages, and the slip grader always agree. It combines two back-tested signals: a form signal (the line sits meaningfully above a cold last-10 average) and sharp-book divergence when a sportsbook price exists for the same line. The form signal is validated for the under side only, which is why our reads lean under. When neither signal is present the leg is a coin flip, and when there is no data we say so instead of dressing it up.

A verdict is a probability read, not a prediction. Injuries, role changes, and weather can invalidate any hit rate; we surface injury context next to the read but never let it vote. Our live record is published in-app and includes losses.

What we sell

Hit rates, game logs, and splits are free and public on this site. Unlimited slip grades, "Fix my slip" replacement legs, and the full interactive board are part of the paid plans. Nothing here is a guarantee of profit, and this is not a sportsbook.

Questions or a number you think is wrong? Tell us. Accuracy is the product.