Falcons vs Steelers Prop Hit Rates
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · 139 props on Underdog & PrizePicks
Every Falcons vs Steelers player prop on the board with its last-10 hit rate against the current line. Reads come from the same scorer as our slip grader: a TAKE means the under has a validated edge, a TRAP means the number is fighting the player's recent form, a coin flip means neither signal fired.
Top takes in this game
- Rico Dowdleunder 53.5 rush yards~71% to hitInflated number — 53.5 sits 5.5 above their last-10 average (48) and they've stayed under it in 7 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- Jaylen Warrenunder 17.5 receiving yards~67% to hitInflated number — 17.5 sits 3.1 above their last-10 average (14.4) and they've stayed under it in 7 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- Tua Tagovailoaunder 209.5 pass yards~66% to hitInflated number — 209.5 sits 18.7 above their last-10 average (190.8) and they've stayed under it in 7 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- Jahan Dotsonunder 15.5 receiving yards~60% to hitInflated number — 15.5 sits 4.4 above their last-10 average (11.1) and they've stayed under it in 8 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- Jahan Dotsonunder 15.5 receiving yards~60% to hitInflated number — 15.5 sits 4.4 above their last-10 average (11.1) and they've stayed under it in 8 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
Atlanta Falcons props
| Player | Market | Line | L10 over | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | Rush + Rec Yds | 116.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Rush Yards | 77.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 37.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 17.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 4.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Rush | 16.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 15.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Pass Yards | 209.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Pass Yards | 207.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Pass Tds | 1.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — | |
| Longest Completion | 34.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Completion | 34.5 | — | — | |
| Pass INTs | 0.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Jahan Dotson | Receiving Yards | 15.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 15.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — | |
| Longest Reception | 11.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 11.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 4.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Drake London | Receiving Yards | 65.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receptions | 5.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 21.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Kyle Pitts | Receiving Yards | 42.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receptions | 4.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 20% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 17.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Chris Blair | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| Zachariah Branch | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Austin Hooper | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Nick Folk | Kicking Points | 5.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Xp Made | 1.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| FG Made | 1.5 | 60% | COIN FLIP | |
| Jessie Bates | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
Pittsburgh Steelers props
| Player | Market | Line | L10 over | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | Pass+Rush Yds | 219.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Pass+Rush Yds | 219.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Pass Yards | 215.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Pass Yards | 212.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Completions | 21.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Pass Completions | 21.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Pass Tds | 1.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 0.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Completion | 33.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Completion | 33.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 13 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Pass INTs | 0.5 | 20% | COIN FLIP | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Rico Dowdle | Rush+Rec Yds | 66.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Rush + Rec Yds | 66.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 53.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 14.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush Attempts | 14 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Rush | 12.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 12.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 11 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Jaylen Warren | Rush + Rec Yds | 57.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Rush Yards | 39.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 17.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 9.5 | 90% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Rush | 11.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 10.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| DK Metcalf | Rush + Rec Yds | 46.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 46.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 20.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Receiving Yards | 44.5 | — | — |
| Receiving Yards | 42.5 | — | — | |
| Receptions | 4.5 | — | — | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 17.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 17.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 11 | — | — | |
| Rec Targets | 6 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Pat Freiermuth | Receiving Yards | 25.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 25.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 2.5 | 60% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Reception | 13.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 12.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Darnell Washington | Receiving Yards | 17.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 17.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — | |
| Longest Reception | 11.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 10.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Brian Robinson | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Germie Bernard | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Eli Heidenreich | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Ben Skowronek | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| Roman Wilson | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Kaden Wetjen | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Robert Tonyan | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| Riley Nowakowski | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Chris Boswell | Kicking Points | 7.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Kicking Points | 7.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Xp Made | 2.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| FG Made | 1.5 | 60% | COIN FLIP | |
| Jaquan Brisker | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| Jamel Dean | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| Jalen Ramsey | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| Joey Porter Jr. | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
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