Bills vs Texans Prop Hit Rates
Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13, 1:00 PM ET · 179 props on Underdog & PrizePicks
Every Bills vs Texans player prop on the board with its last-10 hit rate against the current line. Reads come from the same scorer as our slip grader: a TAKE means the under has a validated edge, a TRAP means the number is fighting the player's recent form, a coin flip means neither signal fired.
Top takes in this game
- David Montgomeryunder 56.5 rush yards~70% to hitInflated number — 56.5 sits 20.4 above their last-10 average (36.1) and they've stayed under it in 8 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- David Montgomeryunder 55.5 rush yards~65% to hitInflated number — 55.5 sits 19.4 above their last-10 average (36.1) and they've stayed under it in 8 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- C.J. Stroudunder 10.5 rush yards~62% to hitInflated number — 10.5 sits 3.2 above their last-10 average (7.3) and they've stayed under it in 7 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- David Montgomeryunder 66.5 rush + rec yds~60% to hitInflated number — 66.5 sits 20.8 above their last-10 average (45.7) and they've stayed under it in 8 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
- David Montgomeryunder 13.5 rush attempts~60% to hitInflated number — 13.5 sits 5.5 above their last-10 average (8) and they've stayed under it in 9 of their last 10. You're not rooting against them — an average night for them cashes this; beating you takes an outlier game.
Buffalo Bills props
| Player | Market | Line | L10 over | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | Pass+Rush Yds | 248.5 | 60% | COIN FLIP |
| Pass Yards | 223.5 | 60% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush Yards | 32.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Attempts | 29.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Completions | 20.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush Attempts | 6.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Tds | 1.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| James Cook | Rush + Rec Yds | 87.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Rush Yards | 74.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 17.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 15.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Rush | 13.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 9.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Khalil Shakir | Receiving Yards | 38.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 36.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 4 | 67% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Reception | 15.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 15.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 9 | 44% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rec Targets | 5.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| D.J. Moore | Receiving Yards | 46.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 90% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 20.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Dalton Kincaid | Receiving Yards | 35.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 16.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Dawson Knox | Receiving Yards | 15.5 | 90% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 20% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 10.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| James Cook III | Rush Yards | 74.5 | — | — |
| Receiving Yards | 14.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 13.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 8.5 | — | — | |
| DJ Moore | Receiving Yards | 46.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 19.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 9.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rec Targets | 5.5 | — | — | |
| Jackson Hawes | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Keon Coleman | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP |
| Ty Johnson | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Skyler Bell | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Ray Davis | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Tyler Bass | Kicking Points | 6.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Kicking Points | 6.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Xp Made | 2.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| FG Made | 1.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Christian Benford | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| Maxwell Hairston | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
Houston Texans props
| Player | Market | Line | L10 over | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | Pass+Rush Yds | 232.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP |
| Pass+Rush Yds | 232.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Pass Yards | 222.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Pass Yards | 219.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Pass Attempts | 31.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Completions | 20.5 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Pass Completions | 19.5 | 60% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush Yards | 10.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 7.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush Attempts | 2.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 2.5 | 40% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Pass Tds | 1.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Completion | 32.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Completion | 32.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 14 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Rush | 6.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 6.5 | — | — | |
| INT | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Pass INTs | 0.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| David Montgomery | Rush + Rec Yds | 66.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Rush Yards | 56.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 55.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 13.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 13.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 8.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 7.5 | 70% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Rush | 12.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 12.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Woody Marks | Rush + Rec Yds | 42.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Rush Yards | 31.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 30.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush Yards | 27.5 | 90% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush Attempts | 7.5 | 90% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 40% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Rush | 10.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Rush | 10.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 7.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Kayshon Boutte | Receiving Yards | 20.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 20.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Yds | 19.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Reception | 12.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 12.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Nico Collins | Receiving Yards | 68.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 67.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 5.5 | 30% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 30% | COIN FLIP | |
| Longest Reception | 22.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 22.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 14 | 50% | COIN FLIP | |
| Rec Targets | 8.5 | — | — | |
| Last Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Fumbles Lost | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Dalton Schultz | Receiving Yards | 32.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 32.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 3.5 | 50% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 20% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Longest Reception | 14.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 14.5 | — | — | |
| Fantasy Score | 8.5 | 40% | TAKE · UNDER | |
| Rec Targets | 5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Xavier Hutchinson | Receiving Yards | 20.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Receiving Yards | 18.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Receptions | 1.5 | 60% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — | |
| Longest Reception | 12.5 | — | — | |
| Longest Reception | 12.5 | — | — | |
| First Td Scorer | 0.5 | — | — | |
| Joshua Palmer | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Cade Stover | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| Marlin Klein | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | — | — |
| Jared Wayne | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| Foster Moreau | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 0% | — |
| Jaylin Noel | Rush + Rec Tds | 0.5 | 10% | TAKE · UNDER |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | Kicking Points | 7.5 | 90% | TRAP · UNDER |
| FG Made | 1.5 | 90% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| FG Made | 1.5 | 90% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Xp Made | 1.5 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Danielle Hunter | Sacks | 0.8 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER |
| Sacks | 0.8 | 80% | TRAP · UNDER | |
| Will Anderson Jr. | Sacks | 0.8 | 40% | COIN FLIP |
| Will Anderson | Sacks | 0.8 | — | — |
| Reed Blankenship | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| Dee Alford | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| Derek Stingley | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| Kamari Lassiter | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
| Calen Bullock | Defensive Ints | 0.5 | — | — |
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