Matthew Stafford Passing TDs Hit Rate
QB · Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams) went over 3.5 — where his line lands when it posts in 4 of his 17 games in 2025, averaging 2.7 passing tds across 17 games.
2025 median
3
Off the board right now. Numbers below anchor 3.5 — where the line usually lands.
2025 avg
2.7
17 games
Over 3.5
4-13
24%
Season total
46
passing tds
Hit rate by line — 2025 season
| Line | Over | Under | Over rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 15 | 2 | 88% |
| 2.5 | 9 | 8 | 53% |
| 3.5anchor | 4 | 13 | 24% |
| 4.5 | 1 | 16 | 6% |
| 5.5 | 0 | 17 | 0% |
Games landing exactly on a line are pushes and are excluded from both rates.
Home vs road
| Split | Games | Average | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8 | 2.8 | 2-6 (25%) |
| Road | 9 | 2.7 | 2-7 (22%) |
Every 2025 game — passing tds
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Passing TDs | vs 3.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 18 | vs Arizona Cardinals | 4 | Over |
| 2025-12-29 | 17 | @ Atlanta Falcons | 2 | Under |
| 2025-12-18 | 16 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 3 | Under |
| 2025-12-14 | 15 | vs Detroit Lions | 2 | Under |
| 2025-12-07 | 14 | @ Arizona Cardinals | 3 | Under |
| 2025-11-30 | 13 | @ Carolina Panthers | 2 | Under |
| 2025-11-23 | 12 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | Under |
| 2025-11-16 | 11 | vs Seattle Seahawks | 2 | Under |
| 2025-11-09 | 10 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 4 | Over |
| 2025-11-02 | 9 | vs New Orleans Saints | 4 | Over |
| 2025-10-19 | 7 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | Over |
| 2025-10-12 | 6 | @ Baltimore Ravens | 1 | Under |
| 2025-10-02 | 5 | vs San Francisco 49ers | 3 | Under |
| 2025-09-28 | 4 | vs Indianapolis Colts | 3 | Under |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | Under |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | @ Tennessee Titans | 2 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | vs Houston Texans | 1 | Under |
Matthew Stafford passing tds — common questions
- How often does Matthew Stafford go over 3.5 passing tds?
- Matthew Stafford went over 3.5 passing tds in 4 of his 17 games in 2025 (24%), averaging 2.7 per game.
- What is Matthew Stafford's passing tds line?
- Matthew Stafford has no passing tds line posted right now. His 2025 median was 3 passing tds, which is where the line typically lands.
- Does Matthew Stafford do better at home or on the road?
- Matthew Stafford averaged 2.8 passing tds in 8 home games versus 2.7 in 9 road games during 2025.
Got this leg in a slip?
Drop your PrizePicks or Underdog slip in the grader — verdict on every leg in seconds, free.
Grade my slipNFL Season Pass — $49
Every hit rate, every board, unlimited slip grades — now through the Super Bowl. One payment, no renewal.