Matthew Stafford Passing TDs Hit Rate
QB · LAR · 2025 with Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford (LAR) went over the current 2.5 line in 9 of his 17 games in 2025, averaging 2.7 passing tds across 17 games.
This week: vs SF — full matchup hit rates →
Current line
2.5
On the board at PrizePicks vs SF
2025 avg
2.7
17 games
Over 2.5
9-8
53%
Season total
46
passing tds
Hit rate by line — 2025 season
| Line | Over | Under | Over rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 17 | 0 | 100% |
| 1.5 | 15 | 2 | 88% |
| 2.5current line | 9 | 8 | 53% |
| 3.5 | 4 | 13 | 24% |
| 4.5 | 1 | 16 | 6% |
Games landing exactly on a line are pushes and are excluded from both rates.
Home vs road
| Split | Games | Average | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8 | 2.8 | 5-3 (63%) |
| Road | 9 | 2.7 | 4-5 (44%) |
Every 2025 game — passing tds
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Passing TDs | vs 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 18 | vs Arizona Cardinals | 4 | Over |
| 2025-12-29 | 17 | @ Atlanta Falcons | 2 | Under |
| 2025-12-18 | 16 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 3 | Over |
| 2025-12-14 | 15 | vs Detroit Lions | 2 | Under |
| 2025-12-07 | 14 | @ Arizona Cardinals | 3 | Over |
| 2025-11-30 | 13 | @ Carolina Panthers | 2 | Under |
| 2025-11-23 | 12 | vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | Over |
| 2025-11-16 | 11 | vs Seattle Seahawks | 2 | Under |
| 2025-11-09 | 10 | @ San Francisco 49ers | 4 | Over |
| 2025-11-02 | 9 | vs New Orleans Saints | 4 | Over |
| 2025-10-19 | 7 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 5 | Over |
| 2025-10-12 | 6 | @ Baltimore Ravens | 1 | Under |
| 2025-10-02 | 5 | vs San Francisco 49ers | 3 | Over |
| 2025-09-28 | 4 | vs Indianapolis Colts | 3 | Over |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | @ Philadelphia Eagles | 2 | Under |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | @ Tennessee Titans | 2 | Under |
| 2025-09-07 | 1 | vs Houston Texans | 1 | Under |
Matthew Stafford passing tds — common questions
- How often does Matthew Stafford go over 2.5 passing tds?
- Matthew Stafford went over 2.5 passing tds in 9 of his 17 games in 2025 (53%), averaging 2.7 per game.
- What is Matthew Stafford's passing tds line?
- Matthew Stafford's passing tds line is 2.5 at PrizePicks vs the SF.
- Does Matthew Stafford do better at home or on the road?
- Matthew Stafford averaged 2.8 passing tds in 8 home games versus 2.7 in 9 road games during 2025.
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