Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Hit Rate
WR · MIN · 2025 with Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson (MIN) went over the current 74.5 line in 7 of his 17 games in 2025, averaging 61.6 receiving yards across 17 games.
This week: vs CHI — full matchup hit rates →
Current line
74.5
On the board at Underdog vs CHI
2025 avg
61.6
17 games
Over 74.5
7-10
41%
Season total
1048
receiving yards
Hit rate by line — 2025 season
| Line | Over | Under | Over rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49.5 | 9 | 8 | 53% |
| 61.5 | 8 | 9 | 47% |
| 74.5current line | 7 | 10 | 41% |
| 87.5 | 3 | 14 | 18% |
| 99.5 | 3 | 14 | 18% |
Games landing exactly on a line are pushes and are excluded from both rates.
Home vs road
| Split | Games | Average | vs 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 8 | 59.4 | 4-4 (50%) |
| Road | 9 | 63.7 | 3-6 (33%) |
Every 2025 game — receiving yards
| Date | Wk | Opponent | Receiving Yards | vs 74.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 18 | vs Green Bay Packers | 101 | Over |
| 2025-12-25 | 17 | vs Detroit Lions | 30 | Under |
| 2025-12-21 | 16 | @ New York Giants | 85 | Over |
| 2025-12-14 | 15 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 22 | Under |
| 2025-12-07 | 14 | vs Washington Commanders | 11 | Under |
| 2025-11-30 | 13 | @ Seattle Seahawks | 4 | Under |
| 2025-11-23 | 12 | @ Green Bay Packers | 48 | Under |
| 2025-11-16 | 11 | vs Chicago Bears | 61 | Under |
| 2025-11-09 | 10 | vs Baltimore Ravens | 37 | Under |
| 2025-11-02 | 9 | @ Detroit Lions | 47 | Under |
| 2025-10-23 | 8 | @ Los Angeles Chargers | 74 | Under |
| 2025-10-19 | 7 | vs Philadelphia Eagles | 79 | Over |
| 2025-10-05 | 5 | @ Cleveland Browns | 123 | Over |
| 2025-09-28 | 4 | @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 126 | Over |
| 2025-09-21 | 3 | vs Cincinnati Bengals | 75 | Over |
| 2025-09-14 | 2 | vs Atlanta Falcons | 81 | Over |
| 2025-09-08 | 1 | @ Chicago Bears | 44 | Under |
Justin Jefferson receiving yards — common questions
- How often does Justin Jefferson go over 74.5 receiving yards?
- Justin Jefferson went over 74.5 receiving yards in 7 of his 17 games in 2025 (41%), averaging 61.6 per game.
- What is Justin Jefferson's receiving yards line?
- Justin Jefferson's receiving yards line is 74.5 at Underdog vs the CHI.
- Does Justin Jefferson do better at home or on the road?
- Justin Jefferson averaged 63.7 receiving yards in 9 road games versus 59.4 in 8 home games during 2025.
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